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What is Portugal’s economic forecast for 2025?


What is Portugal’s economic forecast for 2025? - portugal news
What is Portugal’s economic forecast for 2025? - Portugal Business News





Portugal news - Portugal’s economic outlook for 2025 is positive according to the OECD and here are the forecasts for Portugal’s GDP growth, inflation rate, exports and investment, as well as for public debt, fiscal policy and minimum wage in 2025.  

 

 

What is Portugal’s GDP growth forecast for 2025?  


Portugal’s real GDP growth forecast is expected to be 1.6% in 2024 and 2% in 2025 according to the OECD. However, according to the Central Bank’s March forecast, Portugal’s GDP growth is expected to be 2% in 2024 and 1.8% in 2025.

 

Among the factors contributing to Portugal’s economic outlook are the increase in public investment, the reduction in taxes and the increase in social benefits.

 

Portugal’s high nominal GDP growth is expected to help maintain budgetary surpluses and reduce public debt below 93% of GDP in 2025 according to the Maastricht definition.

 

Portugal’s high GDP growth outlook compares to bleak forecasts of 0.2% for Germany and of 0.4% for the UK in 2024.  

 

 

What is Portugal’s economic forecast for 2025? - portugal news
What is Portugal’s economic forecast for 2025? - Portugal Business News

 

What is Portugal’s inflation rate forecast for 2025?  


Portugal’s headline consumer price inflation rate forecast for 2025 is expected to be 2.4% in 2024 and 2% in 2025 according to the OECD.

 

This outlook is due to stable energy prices and to the slowdown in labor demand. The OECD is expecting Portugal’s tight labor market and falling inflation to be supporting real wage growth and private consumption, while the implementation of the Recovery and Resilience Plan (PRR) will boost investment.

 

 

What is Portugal’s exports and investments forecast for 2025?  


Portugal’s exports and investments forecast in 2024 is expected to be driven by modest global growth that is hampered by high uncertainty. However, increased external demand is expected to drive higher growth in 2025 according to the OECD.

 

 

What is Portugal’s public debt forecast for 2025?  


Portugal’s public debt forecast is expected to decrease from 99.1% in 2023 to 95.7% in 2024, with public debt expected to be significantly lower in 2025, to reach below 93% of GDP according to the OECD.

 

 

What is Portugal’s fiscal policy forecast for 2025?


Portugal’s fiscal policy forecast is expected to be less restrictive in 2024 and 2025, with the budget balance projected to decline from 1.2% of GDP in 2023 to 0.3% in 2024, according to the OECD Economic Outlook report published on May 2, 2024.

 

Spending from RRP grants is expected to increase from 0.6% of GDP in 2023 to 1.3% in 2024 and 1.8% in 2025, boosting public consumption and investment. The implementation of the RRP, personal income tax cuts and increasing social benefits will support activity and will compensate the phasing out of support measures to smooth the inflationary shock in 2024. Moreover, the timely implementation of the RRP is expected to strengthen green infrastructure, skill acquisition and healthcare capacity and to support sustainable growth. This will be supported by additional measures to improve career guidance in education and to reduce barriers in the services sector.

 

The OECD expects Portugal to implement more efficient spending policies and a strengthened fiscal framework that will help to address mounting spending pressures from an ageing population and the strong investment needs in the long term.

 

 

What is Portugal’s minimum wage forecast for 2025?


Portugal’s minimum wage rose by 7.9% in 2024, and the minimum wage forecast is expected to be a further 4.3% rise in 2025 according to the OECD.


 

What is Portugal’s economic forecast according to other agencies?  

 

Portugal’s economic forecast is extremely positive since the country’s rating has just been upgraded to an A by three major ratings agencies, namely Moody's, Fitch and DBRS.





 

 

 

 


 


 

 


 

 

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