What is Portugal’s economic rating in 2026 and economic forecast for 2027?

What is Portugal’s economic rating in 2026 and economic forecast for 2027? - Portugal Business News

News Economy Europe – Here is Portugal’s economic rating in 2026 according to Fitch and S&P, as well as the country’s economic forecast for 2027, including economic indicators and the expected impact of US tariffs on Portugal:

1 - Here is the Fitch economic rating of Portugal in 2026:

The Fitch ratings agency has revised upwards its outlook for Portugal from A "stable" to A "positive," on March 6, 2026.

Fitch improved Portugal’s economic rating to signal confidence in the trajectory of public debt reduction and the country's fiscal management.

2 - Here is the S&P economic rating of Portugal in 2026:

The S&P Global ratings agency has revised upwards its outlook for Portugal to A+ "positive" on February 27, 2026.

Standard & Poor's (S&P) improved Portugal’s economic rating based on its resilient economy and declining debt.

3 – What is Portugal’s economic data for 2025?

In 2025, Portugal recorded a budget surplus of 1.3 billion euros and a historic reduction in the public debt ratio to 89.6% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the lowest value in 16 years.

Portugal’s external debt also decreased to 110.9 billion euros in 2025, the lowest figure since the third quarter of 2007, according to data from the Bank of Portugal.

4 – What is Portugal’s economic forecast for 2026 & 2027 according to Fitch?

Fitch forecasts a deficit of 0.8% for Portugal in 2026, indicating that the deterioration mainly reflects reconstruction expenses linked to the recent storm, to a spike in Recovery and Resilience Plan (RRP) funded expenditures, and to cuts to personal and corporate income taxes in the 2026 budget, alongside an increase in expenditure on salaries and pensions.

Fitch forecasts that Portugal’s deficit will fall to 0.5% of GDP in 2027, as temporary storm-related effects fade and RDP loan-financed expenditures decline.

5 - What is Portugal’s economic forecast for 2026 & 2027 according to S&P Global?

S&P Global forecasts that Portugal’s economic growth will hover just below 2% on average over 2026-2029, supported by strong household and company finances, EU transfers, significant net immigration, and the competitive cost structure for the productive sector, including lower energy prices compared to EU peers.

S&P Global expects Portugal’s GDP growth to tick up to 2.2% in 2026, that is up from 1.9% in 2025, driven by the acceleration of public investment funded by Next Generation EU (NGEU) grants ahead of the deadline in 2026.

S&P Global forecasts that Portugal’s net general government debt to GDP, will fall below 80% by 2027, that is following a steep downward trajectory due to the country’s resilient economic growth and a prudent fiscal stance.

For 2028 and 2029, S&P Global forecasts that Portugal’s growth will be moderate, that is about 1.7%, as EU-related investment tails off and net exports stabilize, barring a more severe trade or labor supply disruption.

S&P Global also expects Portugal's current account to maintain a moderate surplus of about 1% of GDP over 2026-2029.

6 - Here is the S&P forecast for Portugal’s economic indicators for 2026 and 2027:

1 – Portugal’s Real GDP Growth forecast is 2,2% for 2026 and 1.8% for 2027

2 – Portugal’s Unemployment rate forecast is 6.3% for 2026 and 6.5% for 2027

3 – Portugal’s Debt to GDP ratio forecast is 85.9% for 2026 and 82.5% for 2027

7 – What is the expected impact of US tariffs on Portugal in 2026?

According to S&P Global, Portugal will remain relatively shielded from the impact of higher U.S. tariffs on EU goods. This is because the country is a predominantly service-driven economy (68% of value added) with only 7% of its goods exported to the U.S.