What is Portugal’s economic forecast & GDP growth for 2025-2028?

What is Portugal’s economic forecast & GDP growth for 2025-2028? - Portugal Business News

Portuguese economy news - What is Portugal’s economic forecast & GDP growth for 2025-2028? The above chart shows Portugal’s economic indicators for 2025-2028, according to S&P Global.

Portugal’s economy is expected to maintain resilient economic growth, partially fueled by quicker implementation of NextGen EU funds.  Portugal’s real GDP growth is expected to hover around 2% over the period 2025-2028, that is higher than the 1.2% estimate for the eurozone average, according to S&P Global.

While S&P Global just upgraded Portugal’s rating to an 'A', Portugal’s credit rating was raised to A+ by Japan’s rating agency in February.

Portugal’s economic growth forecast is Positive and Portugal’s economy is set to outperform the eurozone's average over the 2025-2028, due to record-high service exports, particularly in tourism, and strong investments tied to NextGen EU funds.

There is a significant improvement in Portugal's external position, and the country is expected to maintain a moderate current account surplus supported by EU fund inflows from the Next Gen programs, with a declining external debt as a share of GDP.

Portugal's strong fiscal policy track record shows the country’s ability to maintain a declining government debt trajectory that will continue external deleveraging.

Since Portugal exports only 8% of its goods and services to the U.S., the country has limited direct exposure to potential tariffs, while remained exposed to disruptions in the EU that is its primary trade partner.

Portugal’s steady economic growth means that unemployment figures are expected to remain low, averaging 6.3% over the 2025-2028 period.

Portugal's economic outlook will remain characterized by budget surpluses with a 2025 forecast of 0.2% of GDP according to S&P Global, while Portugal’s Government forecast is 0.3% of GDP. Portugal should sustain a modest budget surplus of about 0.2% of GDP throughout the period 2026-2027. 

Since Portugal is reducing government debt at one of the fastest paces in the eurozone, its gross general government debt should fall to 84% of GDP by 2028 compared with 96% of GDP in 2024. 

Moreover, Portugal’s banking sector risks are limited, with stronger capitalization and common equity Tier 1 standing at 17.7% at Sept. 30, 2024.